it was only a matter of time

You can't rig elections all over the country without an army of operatives. Eventually, even the most loyal and well paid talk. People have consciences. This story from Online Journal looks like the next breaking wave in the "conspiracy theory."

Truthisall posted these numbers on DU today regarding exit polls in the 2004 election and their probability for deviations from the official results:

............Kerry
State Size Exit Vote Diff StDev MoE Prob >MoE? Favor
DE 770 58.50% 53.54% -4.96% 1.80% 3.53% 0.29 yes Bush
NH 1849 55.40% 50.51% -4.89% 1.16% 2.28% 0.00 yes Bush
VT 685 65.00% 60.20% -4.80% 1.91% 3.74% 0.60 yes Bush
SC 1735 46.00% 41.41% -4.59% 1.20% 2.35% 0.01 yes Bush
NE 785 36.76% 32.32% -4.44% 1.78% 3.50% 0.64 yes Bush

AK 910 40.50% 36.08% -4.42% 1.66% 3.25% 0.38 yes Bush
AL 730 41.00% 37.00% -4.00% 1.85% 3.63% 1.53 yes Bush
NC 2167 48.00% 44.00% -4.00% 1.07% 2.11% 0.01 yes Bush
NY 1452 63.00% 59.18% -3.82% 1.31% 2.57% 0.18 yes Bush
CT 872 58.50% 55.10% -3.40% 1.69% 3.32% 2.24 yes Bush

RI 809 64.00% 60.61% -3.39% 1.76% 3.45% 2.68 Bush
MA 889 66.00% 62.63% -3.37% 1.68% 3.29% 2.21 yes Bush
PA 1930 54.35% 51.00% -3.35% 1.14% 2.23% 0.16 yes Bush
MS 798 43.26% 40.00% -3.26% 1.77% 3.47% 3.29 Bush
OH 1963 52.10% 49.00% -3.10% 1.13% 2.21% 0.30 yes Bush

FL 2846 50.51% 47.47% -3.03% 0.94% 1.84% 0.06 yes Bush
MN 2178 54.50% 51.52% -2.98% 1.07% 2.10% 0.27 yes Bush
UT 798 30.50% 27.55% -2.95% 1.77% 3.47% 4.78 Bush
ID 559 33.50% 30.61% -2.89% 2.11% 4.14% 8.60 Bush
AZ 1859 47.00% 44.44% -2.56% 1.16% 2.27% 1.38 yes Bush

VA 1000 47.96% 45.45% -2.50% 1.58% 3.10% 5.66 Bush
LA 1669 44.50% 42.42% -2.08% 1.22% 2.40% 4.49 Bush
IL 1392 57.00% 55.00% -2.00% 1.34% 2.63% 6.78 Bush
WI 2223 52.50% 50.51% -1.99% 1.06% 2.08% 3.00 Bush
WV 1722 45.25% 43.43% -1.82% 1.20% 2.36% 6.54 Bush

NM 1951 51.30% 49.49% -1.81% 1.13% 2.22% 5.54 Bush
CO 2515 49.10% 47.47% -1.63% 1.00% 1.95% 5.15 Bush
IN 926 41.00% 39.39% -1.61% 1.64% 3.22% 16.42 Bush
GA 1536 43.00% 41.41% -1.59% 1.28% 2.50% 10.69 Bush
MO 2158 47.50% 46.00% -1.50% 1.08% 2.11% 8.17 Bush

NJ 1520 55.00% 53.54% -1.46% 1.28% 2.51% 12.67 Bush
WA 2123 54.95% 53.54% -1.41% 1.09% 2.13% 9.70 Bush
IA 2502 50.65% 49.49% -1.15% 1.00% 1.96% 12.41 Bush
AR 1402 46.60% 45.45% -1.15% 1.34% 2.62% 19.55 Bush
KY 1034 41.00% 40.00% -1.00% 1.55% 3.05% 26.01 Bush

OK 1539 35.00% 34.00% -1.00% 1.27% 2.50% 21.63 Bush
MI 2452 52.50% 51.52% -0.98% 1.01% 1.98% 16.47 Bush
NV 2116 49.35% 48.48% -0.87% 1.09% 2.13% 21.29 Bush
ME 1968 54.75% 54.08% -0.66% 1.13% 2.21% 27.80 Bush
MD 1000 57.00% 56.57% -0.43% 1.58% 3.10% 39.18 Bush

DC 795 91.00% 90.91% -0.09% 1.77% 3.48% 47.96 Bush
MT 640 39.76% 39.80% 0.04% 1.98% 3.87% 50.72 Kerry
OR 1064 51.20% 52.00% 0.80% 1.53% 3.00% 69.91 Kerry
HI 499 53.30% 54.55% 1.25% 2.24% 4.39% 71.10 Kerry
TX 1671 37.00% 38.38% 1.38% 1.22% 2.40% 87.10 Kerry

TN 1774 41.50% 43.00% 1.50% 1.19% 2.33% 89.68 Kerry
CA 1919 54.00% 55.56% 1.56% 1.14% 2.24% 91.35 Kerry
SD 1495 37.76% 39.39% 1.63% 1.29% 2.53% 89.65 Kerry
ND 649 34.00% 36.36% 2.36% 1.96% 3.85% 88.58 Kerry
KS 654 35.00% 37.37% 2.37% 1.96% 3.83% 88.76 Kerry

Avg 1450 49.18% 47.38% -1.80% 1.42% 2.79% 21.67 Bush
Med 1507.5 49.23% 47.47% -1.81% 1.29% 2.52% 6.66 Bush

This is the explanation:

The individual state probabilities are calculated using the Normal distribution Function. For example, consider Florida: The probability that Kerry's 50.51% exit poll percentage would decline to 47.47% in the actual vote (a 4.04% deviation, far outside the 1.84% MOE) is equal to .06%. This calculation is based on the FL exit poll sample size of 2846, which produces a MOE of 1.84%. The corresponding standard deviation (StDev) is 0.94%. The StDev is plugged into the normal distribution function, along with the exit poll and reported vote percentages. The probability that this deviation would occur due to chance is: .06% = 100*NORMDIST(47.47%,50.51%,.94%,TRUE) Here are the Exit Poll and Voting Results for all the states: Size refers to the exit poll sample size for the given state. The percentages are Kerry's Exit Polls and reported Votes.